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Stock Market: Worst Yet to Come?

Posted on September 22, 2022 at 17:00

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Turbulence in the financial markets. The stock market experienced one of its most serious crises in more than ten years. After strutting in 2021, with an all-time high in particular for the CAC 40 rising to almost 7,400 points, the fall in world stocks came in the wake of the war in Ukraine, not the only cause. In a few weeks, the Paris Stock Exchange fell and since then it has oscillated between 5,700 and 6,700 points. Not better across the Atlantic, where the S&P 500, Wall Street’s flagship index, has lost more than 20% since the start of 2022.

The year is already very bad for investors. The first tremors appeared at the end of 2021 in the United States with the start of a series of rate hikes. After a decade of near-zero, even negative, rates boosting stock valuations, the shock was severe. The markets began a decline that was later accentuated by the geopolitical situation, by the real estate crisis coupled with a zero Covid policy in China, then the breakdown of post-pandemic supply chains, and finally the energy crisis. An unexpected accumulation of events traditionally depressing for the markets.

Accident or no accident

Among the actions that suffered the most were those of Tech. The fall in their valuation had a direct impact on individuals, who favored them, and when they had returned to France in the stock market game after a decade of discontent. There is a risk that global stock markets could sink a bit more in October. Some even fear reaching a breaking point when, since 1929, this month of the year is the one associated with the stock market crash. The situation is special, with an inflationary risk that responds to rate hikes by central banks. A monetary policy that makes investors pessimistic.

La Story is a Les Echos podcast hosted by Pierrick Fay. This episode was recorded in September 2022. Editor-in-Chief: Clémence Lemaistre. Guests: Christian Parisot (economic adviser to Aurel BGC) and Bastien Bouchaud (journalist from the Markets department of “Echos”). Directed by: Willy Ganne. Responsible for production and publication: Michèle Warnet. Music: Theo Boulenger. Graphic identity: Upian. Photo: Richard Drew/AP/SIPA. Sounds: Francis Cabrel “Octubre” (1995), La Story, TF1, Topito, Bob Decout “Don’t Soften” (1981), Djadja & Dinaz “Max Profit”, Kass “Pessimist”.

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