Bitcoin (BTC) : ce mois de novembre 2022 va être très impulsif

Bitcoin (BTC): This month of November 2022 will be very impulsive

Bitcoin (BTC) has been building bullish momentum since the start of the week, a move that could be the beginning of the end of a market torpor that has lasted since mid-summer. In fact Bitcoin’s historical volatility measure last week broke its bear market support from spring 2021 the all time volatility low is in sight for a strong rebound it’s the one month guarantee of November 2022 that It will be hyper impulsive.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Near All-Time Low

Bitcoin price volatility (BTC) arrived this end of october a level very close to its historical lowwith a 7-day volatility that could drop below 1%.

This is an anomaly for an asset class that has the characteristics of the highest volatility in the stock market, a very strong bounce in BTC volatility is now expected in November from the all-time low.

Specifically, what is the significance of an upcoming strong spike in BTC volatility?

This heralds at an early stage a price movement that will be very large this November, or the following alternative and without half measures :

  • A market stall below the $19,000 support and a drop in the price range around $10,000/$14,000 ;
  • A bullish resolution of chartist compression that has been building since the summer and a rally higher towards $25,000/$28,000.

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The choice of direction will be established according to the main market correlations. with the trend of the US dollar in Forex, the interest rates of the market and the stock market.

Bitcoin price compared to its 7-day historical volatility measurement (lower curve)

Bitcoin price compared to its 7-day historical volatility measurement (lower curve)

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Cross-asset market and seasonality factors could be in favor of a bullish rally in BTC

The starting point for the upward momentum in the price of Bitcoin at the beginning of the week was given by the publication of a very negative number for the price of residential real estate in the United States.

While the price of real estate represents on average 30% of the calculation of the inflation rate in the United States, gives the market hope of disinflation the coming months and the end of the rise in interest rates.

Such a fundamental pattern of disinflation and falling rates would be a source of bullish recovery for the total crypto market capitalization.

Technical analysis also suggests that Bitcoin price could outperform the stock market. over the next several months on Wall Street. The technical analysis applied to the BTC/S&P 500 relationship curve gives bullish signals, that is, a better relative performance of BTC against US stocks.

Finally, the seasonality data remind us that November has been the best performing month for Bitcoin price for 13 yearswith an average yield of 55%.

Bitcoin/S&P500 Weekly Ratio

Bitcoin/S&P500 weekly relationship, the relative relationship between BTC and the US stock market.

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