" Energy. Should we fear a Lehman Brothers crisis? Ecorama Video » Editorial by Charles SANNAT - Insolentiae

“This is what 7 personalities think about the future of Wall-Street! “. Publisher of Charles SANNAT – Insolentiae

My dear impertinent, dear impertinent,

Bruno Le Maire hasn’t given advice on clothing or on managing our thermostats, I have nothing to say at the end of the weekend.

So, I have to tell you about my backup issue. Bruno, if you could speak this week, it would be helpful in feeding my daily column.

Our Bruno is a true source of inspiration, what would become of me if this economic fountain of youth dries up? I dare not think of that.

That is why I am going to talk to you about this article that comes to us from the other side of the Atlantic and that is obviously in English. I will translate the essentials for you.

Here’s what Jamie Dimon, Cathie Wood and 5 other top experts think about the “disruption” that’s about to hit the markets.

Wall Street is concerned about the growing signs of stress in the markets and in the financial system. Assets are on the rise, economic tensions and dysfunctions in the UK are red flags.

Fears that markets are close to breaking point are mounting on Wall Street, with influential investors and pundits such as Jamie Dimon, Cathie Wood and Larry Summers pointing to where a blowout in the financial system could occur.

Signs of stress in the system are mounting, whether it be sudden moves in assets, growing threats to economic stability, or fears about the solvency of big banks like Credit Suisse. Political turmoil in the UK has laid bare the risks associated with government bonds, generally seen as safe havens.

“We see multiple standard deviation moves in assets like the Swedish krona, Treasuries, oil, silver, every day. These are not healthy moves,” Benjamin Dunn of Alpha Theory Advisors told CNBC.

Many strategists accuse the Federal Reserve of waging an aggressive campaign to curb inflation by raising interest rates at the fastest pace on record. Bond yields soared and the dollar hit a 20-year high, causing economic stress that spread across markets.

These are the points where 6 leading experts believe something could happen:

“You’ve seen it with the golden markets here. There is a lack of liquidity in many markets. … It’s going to happen,” Dimon said at a conference in London.

“The likely place where you will see more cracking, and maybe a little more panic, is in the credit markets. And it could be ETFs, it could be a country, it could be something you don’t suspect.

“If you make a list of all the previous crises, sitting here, we couldn’t have predicted where they came from, although I think you can predict at this point that it’s probably going to happen. So if I was in the field, I would be very careful.”

Scott Minerd, Global Chief Information Officer, Guggenheim Partners: Stocks, Emerging Markets

“They’re going to push until something breaks,” Minerd said recently, speaking of the Fed.

“I think the breakout will probably come through equity prices, but it could come from other places, it could come from emerging markets.”

“Eventually, it will end in tears.”

Cathie Wood, Director of Ark Invest: Financial Services Sector

“There are also signs of distress in the financial services sector. We’ve seen central bank credit default swaps double and triple, and in Europe they’re at record highs,” Wood told CNBC.

“So there are strains in the financial system that I think have started to show, first with the UK LDI crisis. And the reason this is happening is that we’re going through a huge financial shock. »

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser of Allianz: zombie companies, profits….

“Zombie companies find it much harder to refinance. And if they do manage to refinance, the cost of refinancing makes the numbers look completely different,” El-Erian told CNBC last week, referring to the over-leveraged companies that are surviving.

“Then you can go to various investors who have become over-leveraged, that’s going to be a problem.”

“The Federal Reserve is so far behind that it’s probably going to break something along the way to bring down inflation,” El-Erian told CNBC in a separate interview.

“The most likely victim is economic growth. I think the market is starting to recognize that recession risk, and what that does to earnings, is a problem. »

Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary:

“What’s happened in the UK, part of it is self-inflicted damage, but part of it is tremors from what’s going on in the global system,” he told AFP at the annual meeting of the Institute of International Finance on Friday.

“And when you have tremors, you don’t always have earthquakes, but you should probably think about protecting yourself against earthquakes.”

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research: Emerging Markets

“I think it is already breaking. What breaks is the rising dollar,” Yardeni told Bloomberg, also pointing to the Fed’s rate hike campaign.

“The rising dollar has been associated in the past with creating global financial crises.

“We need to have a global perspective on all of this, and this tight monetary policy here is having a huge impact on the rest of the world, especially emerging markets. »

Kamakshya Trivedi, Head of Global Currency Research at Goldman Sachs:

“In some of the most vulnerable pockets of emerging markets, where there is a substantial amount of dollar-denominated debt, there is already a debt crisis,” Trivedi said in a podcast.

“That’s where you have to look for the real debt problems that are starting to show up. »

Conclusion ?

We should probably experience a financial collapse, it could well be major and massive. The cause ?

Easy.

As always, it is a rate hike by the US central bank that decides rain or shine. Expansion and growth or recession and contraction.

The Fed went on the attack. The probability is very high that the Fed will voluntarily burst all the bubbles. Now is not the time to buy assets. Now it’s time to wait and you have all the analysis and all the answers in the “Central banks are attacking you” folder. Turn your strategy in your favor” (to subscribe is here). For now, doing nothing and waiting is making money because assets are falling faster than inflation is rising.

It is already too late, but all is not lost.

Get ready!

Carlos Sannat

“Insolentiae” means “impertinence” in Latin.
Write me at [email protected]
Write to my wife [email protected]

You can also subscribe to my monthly newsletter “STRATEGIES” that will allow you to go further and in which I share with you the concrete solutions to implement to prepare for the next world. These solutions are articulated around the PEL approach: heritage, employment, location. The idea is to share with you the means and methods to start your personal and family resilience.

“To quell peaceful revolutions, one makes violent revolutions inevitable” (JFK)

“This is a ‘presslib’ article, that is, free to reproduce in whole or in part as long as this paragraph is reproduced below. Insolentiae.com is the site where Charles Sannat expresses himself daily, offering cheeky and uncompromising analysis of economic news. Thanks for visiting my site. You can sign up for the daily newsletter for free at www.insolentiae.com. »

#personalities #future #WallStreet #Publisher #Charles #SANNAT #Insolentiae

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *